Abstract: To address the challenges in the development of youth football talent in China, this study conducts an empirical analysis with a cohort of players born in 2009 as the sample. The study estimates the success probabilities of different training pathways, namely schools, sports schools, football schools, professional club academies, and social club youth training systems. The findings show that the probabilities of players trained by football schools and professional club academies being selected for the national team are 7‰ and 5‰, respectively, significantly higher than those of schools, sports schools, and the others. By constructing the development trajectories of elite players in leading football nations, the study further finds that players who obtain league appearances before the age of 17 have a 22.5% probability of becoming core members of the national team; those who gain such opportunities between ages 17 and 21 have a probability of 12.2%; and those who do so after the age of 21 have a probability of 6.1%. These results provide quantitative evidence of the structural shortcomings in China's youth talent development during the (quasi-) professional stage. Based on these findings, the study proposes several policy recommendations: to reconstruct the youth training system by accelerating the development of a five-tier youth training center system; to enhance the competitive performance by optimizing the youth competition structure; to improve the training quality and efficiency by strengthening elite development pathways; to reinforce educational support through integrated, vertically articulated training mechanisms; and to promote international integration by facilitating overseas development opportunities for football talent.