Analysis of the Influencing Factors and Effects of Turnover of Head Coaches in Chinese Super LeagueBased on Event-history Analysis

The turnover of head coaches is a major decision-making issue for football clubs. In view of the frequent changes of Chinese Super League (CSL) head coaches, by collecting the data from the 2010-2019 Super League teams and using event-history analysis, the survival rules of the CSL head coaches and the main influencing factors of their turnover are described. It is found that the life cycle of CSL head coaches is relatively short, usually with a high-risk resignation period within 1-2 years after taking office and the probability of coaching a team more than three to four years is extremely low. The reasons for the turnover are mainly caused by team performance, power structure and team expectations. Among them, it has a U-shaped relationship with the team's long-term performance, with no significant relationship with the team's short-term performance though. In addition, the greater the power of the head coach, the less likely it is to change; while the higher the expectation, the easier it is for the head coach to leave.