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举办奥运会对主办国经济增长的非对称影响:准自然实验下的新证据

Asymmetric Influence of Hosting Olympic Games on Economic Growth of Host Countries: A New Evidence Under Quasi-natural Experiment

  • 摘要: 基于经济周期和经济增长理论,以近5届奥运会主办国为核心分析对象,对2000—2018年35个国家经济数据进行合成对比分析,发现:仅2008年北京奥运会对经济增长起到了长期促进作用;2000年悉尼奥运会对经济的助力延后4年才显现;2004年雅典奥运会举办后对经济的促进作用持续了6~7年,随即受奥运之累陷入经济危机;2012年伦敦奥运会和2016年里约奥运会在申办阶段对国家经济发展产生了一定的正效应,但在正式举办前的3~4年反而产生了负效应。认为:举办奥运会对不同主办国长期经济发展的影响存在显著差异,举办奥运会影响主办国经济增长的重要途径包括地区消费、区域投资、对外贸易、生态环境与社会发展,而有为政府的适度干预是推动上述重要途径充分释放正效应的关键。

     

    Abstract: Based on the theory of business cycle and economic growth, the recent five Olympic host countries are taken as the research objects to compare the economic data of 35 countries from 2000 to 2018 with the synthesis method. It claims that: Only the Beijing Olympic Games played a positive role in China's long-term economic growth, while the Sydney Olympic Games' contribution to Australia's economic boost delayed for four years; The Athens Olympic Games powered Greece's economic development in six to seven years after the event, but it fell into a huge crisis due to the burden of the Olympics; The London and Rio Olympics helped to speed up the economy during the bidding period, but they actually slowed down the overall economy in the 3-4 years before the official games. The conclusion is drawn that there exists significant differences of long-term economic growth among various countries. The major channels of hosting Olympics to impact the economy include local consumption, regional investment, foreign trade, natural environment and social development, but only the moderate intervention from a capable government can effectively push the channels above to reach a positive result.

     

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