中文体育类核心期刊

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《中文社会科学引文索引》(CSSCI)来源期刊

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中国高校百佳科技期刊

中超球队主教练变更影响因素及效果分析基于事件史分析方法

Analysis of the Influencing Factors and Effects of Turnover of Head Coaches in Chinese Super LeagueBased on Event-history Analysis

  • 摘要: 主教练变更是职业足球俱乐部运营中的重大决策问题。针对中超球队主教练频繁变更现象,采集2010—2019赛季中超球队数据,以事件史分析方法刻画中超球队主教练的生存规律及变更的主要影响因素。结果显示:中超球队主教练变更周期较短,一般在上任后1~2年存在一个高风险离职期,执教超过3~4年离职的概率极低;主教练变更的影响因素主要有球队表现、权力结构和球队期望值等,其中,变更与球队长期表现呈U型关系,与球队短期表现关系并不显著;主教练权力越大变更可能性越小,而球队期望值越高主教练越容易离职。

     

    Abstract: The turnover of head coaches is a major decision-making issue for football clubs. In view of the frequent changes of Chinese Super League (CSL) head coaches, by collecting the data from the 2010-2019 Super League teams and using event-history analysis, the survival rules of the CSL head coaches and the main influencing factors of their turnover are described. It is found that the life cycle of CSL head coaches is relatively short, usually with a high-risk resignation period within 1-2 years after taking office and the probability of coaching a team more than three to four years is extremely low. The reasons for the turnover are mainly caused by team performance, power structure and team expectations. Among them, it has a U-shaped relationship with the team's long-term performance, with no significant relationship with the team's short-term performance though. In addition, the greater the power of the head coach, the less likely it is to change; while the higher the expectation, the easier it is for the head coach to leave.

     

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