中文体育类核心期刊

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中国高校百佳科技期刊

赵吉峰,邵桂华.我国竞技体育高质量发展的系统动力学模型与模拟仿真[J].上海体育学院学报,2022,46(3):50-61. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.04.28.0008
引用本文: 赵吉峰,邵桂华.我国竞技体育高质量发展的系统动力学模型与模拟仿真[J].上海体育学院学报,2022,46(3):50-61. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.04.28.0008
ZHAO Jifeng, SHAO Guihua. System Dynamics Model and Analog Simulation of High-Quality Development of Competitive Sports in China[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Sport, 2022, 46(3): 50-61. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.04.28.0008
Citation: ZHAO Jifeng, SHAO Guihua. System Dynamics Model and Analog Simulation of High-Quality Development of Competitive Sports in China[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Sport, 2022, 46(3): 50-61. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.04.28.0008

我国竞技体育高质量发展的系统动力学模型与模拟仿真

System Dynamics Model and Analog Simulation of High-Quality Development of Competitive Sports in China

  • 摘要: 运用系统动力学理论与方法,建立竞技体育高质量发展的系统动力学模型,模拟仿真竞技体育高质量发展模式,促进竞技体育高质量发展。结果显示:竞技体育赶超发展模式是不可持续的发展模式,自我“造血”模式是竞技体育高质量发展的基础模式,职业体育与专业体育的协同发展模式、科技支撑模式是竞技体育高质量发展可供选择的理想模式,竞技体育与群众体育的并行发展模式是具有可持续发展潜力的模式;职业体育与专业体育之间的人才比例满足0.41<R2<1.86时,职业体育与专业体育能产生良好的协同发展效果,有利于促进竞技体育高质量发展。提出:竞技体育的高质量发展需要树立高质量发展观,加快举国体制与市场机制的融合,切实壮大职业体育,提高创新驱动能力,发挥体育科技攻关与服务的杠杆作用,走中国特色的竞技体育高质量发展之路。

     

    Abstract: By means of the theory and method of system dynamics, a system dynamics model of high-quality development of competitive sports is established and the development mode is simulated in order to promote the high-quality development of competitive sports. The results show that the catch-up development mode of competitive sports is unsustainable, while the "self-hematopoietic" mode is the basic one, and the coordinated development mode of professional sports and specialized sports plus the scientific and technological support mode is the ideal one for selection. In addition, the parallel development mode of competitive sports and mass sports has sustainable development potential. When the talent ratio between professional sports and specialized sports meets the requirement of 0.41 < R2 < 1.86, its coordinated development can produce good effects on the high-quality development of competitive sports. It is proposed that a concept on the high-quality development of competitive sports should be established, the integration of National Sports System and market mechanism be accelerated, professional sports expanded effectively, the innovation-driven ability improved, the leverage of scientific and technological researches and services in sports be given full play, and thus the road of high-quality development of competitive sports with Chinese characteristics will be finally taken.

     

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