Objective  The feasibility of predicting the comprehensive performance of Chinese Basketball Association(CBA)professional players was explored with pre-season physical fitness test results and the key factors influencing the comprehensive performance, which may provide reference to intervening and strengthening certain physical and skill status.

  Methods  Pre-season physical fitness test data of CBA players in 2015, including shuttle run, deep squat, bench press and field-goal percentage were selected, and the corresponding efficiency rating of the current season on CBA official website was checked. By multivariate regression analysis based on the test and baseline data, the model was established to predict the season efficiency rating of CBA professional players.

  Results  After the strategy of stepwise regression analysis, fieldgoal percentage, deep squat, and age were included into the final predicting model, χ²=34.014(P < 0.010), and the model was fitted well(Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ²=5.433, P=0.710). Field-goal percentage(OR=1.041, 95%CI: 1.007-1.075, P=0.017)and deep squat(OR=1.084, 95%CI: 1.013-1.160, P=0.020)were independent affecting factors for season efficiency rating of CBA players. AUC of the model was 0.753(95%CI: 0.679-0.828, P < 0.050).

  Conclusion  The model can be used to predict the status and performance of CBA players in the whole season, and adjust the development trend of players'season performance by intervening and strengthening the shooting level and lower limb strength.