中文体育类核心期刊

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王富百慧,王梅,吴蓓蕾,等.中国儿童青少年体育活动变动趋势——基于“十四五”及中长期发展的预测[J].上海体育学院学报,2022,46(6):10-20. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.07.14.0001
引用本文: 王富百慧,王梅,吴蓓蕾,等.中国儿童青少年体育活动变动趋势——基于“十四五”及中长期发展的预测[J].上海体育学院学报,2022,46(6):10-20. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.07.14.0001
WANG-FU baihui, WANG Mei, WU Beilei, ZHANG Xianling, YANG Fan. Trends of Physical Activities for Children and Adolescents in China: Prediction Based on the 14th Five-Year Plan and Medium and Long Term Development[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Sport, 2022, 46(6): 10-20. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.07.14.0001
Citation: WANG-FU baihui, WANG Mei, WU Beilei, ZHANG Xianling, YANG Fan. Trends of Physical Activities for Children and Adolescents in China: Prediction Based on the 14th Five-Year Plan and Medium and Long Term Development[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Sport, 2022, 46(6): 10-20. DOI: 10.16099/j.sus.2021.07.14.0001

中国儿童青少年体育活动变动趋势基于“十四五”及中长期发展的预测

Trends of Physical Activities for Children and Adolescents in ChinaPrediction Based on the 14th Five-Year Plan and Medium and Long Term Development

  • 摘要: 基于2019年全国人口变动情况抽样调查数据和2016年儿童青少年体育健身活动状况调查数据,通过人口预测方法对中国儿童青少年经常参加体育锻炼群体的规模、结构及发展趋势进行预测。发现:2020—2050年经常参加体育锻炼的儿童青少年在规模上整体呈现先升后降并逐渐趋于稳定的趋势。按照总和生育率设定高、中、低3个人口预测方案,预计到2050年经常参加体育锻炼的儿童青少年人口数量分别约为1.68亿、1.39亿和1.21亿。青少年体育赛事、体育组织、参与项目、活动场所以及健身指导的需求也随着规模变动而发生改变,总体呈现短期内小幅度增长、中长期内持续缩减的发展趋势。提出:深化落实体教融合政策,应在制定我国青少年体育“十四五”发展规划及2035年远景目标时,着重考察儿童青少年人口变动趋势,并及时把握新形势下儿童青少年体育活动变化的新趋势、新需求和新问题。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of the 2019 population sample survey and the 2016 survey of children and adolescents' physical activities, the population prediction method is used to predict the scale, structure and development trend of Chinese children and adolescents who regularly participated in physical exercises. The results show that from 2020 to 2050, the population size of children and adolescents regularly for physical exercises will increase first and then decrease and finally gradually stabilize. It is estimated that by 2050, the number of children and adolescents who regularly take part in physical exercise will be about 168 million, 139 million and 121 million according to the three population prediction schemes of high, medium and low total fertility rates. The demands for junior sports events, activity organization, participation events, sport venues and fitness guidance will also change with the change of scale, showing a general trend of small increase in the short term and continuous decrease in the medium and long term. To deepen the implementation of the integration of sport and education, more attention should be paid to the changing trend of the population of children and adolescents in China and the new trends, needs and problems of the change in children and adolescents' physical activities under the new situation should be grasped when formulating the 14th Five-Year Development Plan of China's youth sports and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.

     

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