Time Sequence Characteristics of Chinese Olympic Champions' Growth
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摘要: 采用文献资料法、问卷调查法与访谈法，对175名奥运冠军成长、成才的关键时序节点数据进行分析与文献对比研究。发现：①成为奥运冠军的系统训练时间均值为13.85 a，在整个成才阶段的时序中，青少年训练时期最持久（平均5.66 a）且在性别和项群上差异较大。训练启蒙年龄与训练启动期之间存在“此消彼长”的反比关系。青少年训练只要在合理的年龄范围内，迟早都会“一样”成功，但过早专项化或不利于成年后精英水平的长足发展。②相较而言，奥运冠军成才时序中的“男长女短”现象更普遍，生理发育男晚女早的特征并非训练启蒙的唯一依据。③训练启蒙年龄按项目特点划分更合理，建议分为低龄、中龄和高龄3类。中国优势项目隔网对抗个人项群运动员成才属典型的“大器慢成”，其特征并不同于大多数基础性体能项目，相对而言，体能耐力项群男运动员或可晚起步而速成。Abstract: Using literature review, questionnaire and interviews, the key time sequence node data for the growth of 175 Olympic champions were analyzed.It is found that: ① The average training time to become Olympic champions is 13.85 years.In the time sequence of the entire growth stage of Olympic champions, the youth training period is the longest (average 5.66 years) and has great gender and event group differences. There is an inverse relationship between the training start age and the training start period.As long as adolescent training is within a reasonable age range, it will be "the same" success sooner or later, but premature specialized training may not be conducive to the rapid development of the elite level in adulthood.② In comparison, the phenomenon of "male long female short" for the time sequence of Olympic champions'growth is more common, and the characteristics of physiological development of "male late, female early"are not the only basis for the start of training.③ The age of the start of training is more reasonable according to the characteristics of the sports.It is recommended to divide it into 3 age groups of young, middle and old.The athlete of individual event that compete against each other across the net which are known to be China's dominant event are the typical "start training at a very young age and need to train carefully" and become a talent late, but not suitable for most events of strength and condition.Male athletes in the endurance event group may start late and become quick.
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图 1 奥运冠军成长阶段划分
注：a表示少数项目没有数据就以第1次获得国际青少年冠军的时间节点代替；b表示少数项目没有数据就以第1次获得国际成人冠军的时间节点代替。
Figure 1. Division of growth stages of Olympic champions
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图 2 中国奥运冠军成才期的性别、项群总体特征
Figure 2. The overall characteristics of gender and event groups of the "period" of becoming a Chinese Olympic champion
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图 3 中国奥运冠军成才年限的性别、项群总体特征
Figure 3. The overall characteristics of gender and event groups of the "years" of becoming a Chinese Olympic champion
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图 4 男女冠军具有统计学差异的成长阶段箱线图对比
Figure 4. Comparison of box plots in growth stages of male and female champions with significant differences
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图 5 国际大赛奖牌获得者和无奖牌者成才阶段的专项化训练对比
注：专项化系数=(专项训练时间-其他项目训练时间)/专项训练时间。
Figure 5. Specialized training comparison between medal winners and non-medal winners in international competitions
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图 6 男女训练启蒙年龄与启动期(年限)的线性回归拟合结果
Figure 6. Linear regression fitting between the age of start and the start period of male and female training
表 1 有效问卷调查对象的性别与项群分布
Table 1 Gender and event groups distribution of valid questionnaires
人 性别 项群 合计 技能难美 技能准确 格斗对抗 隔网对抗个人 隔网对抗团体 快速力量 体能速度 体能耐力 女 11 10 8 18 27 11 11 8 104 男 22 9 5 19 0 10 3 3 71 合计 33 19 13 37 27 21 14 11 175 注：chi-square=33.291，P < 0.001。 
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表 2 中国奥运冠军成长阶段一般特征
Table 2 Statistical description of general characteristics of the growth stage of Chinese Olympic Champions
成长阶段 最小值 最大值 中位数 均值 标准差 95% CI 首次接触项目年龄(训练启蒙)/岁 3.00 15.42 9 9.07 3.27 8.52~9.61 首次奥运夺冠年龄/岁 15.42 32.61 22.68 22.92 3.43 22.35~23.49 启动年限(启动期)/a 0.47 14.00 5.53 5.66 2.85 5.19~6.14 成长期/a 0.00 16.00 3.54 3.90 3.02 3.40~4.40 夺冠期/a 0.00 15.44 3.98 4.34 3.05 3.83~4.85 成长年限/a 2.24 17.42 9.66 9.55 3.46 8.97~10.13 夺冠年限/a 5.26 24.27 13.93 13.85 3.99 13.19~14.52
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表 3 不同性别中国奥运冠军成长阶段的时间特征
Table 3 Statistics of the time characteristics of the growth stage of Chinese Olympic champions of different genders
成长阶段 性别 性别差异 最小值 最大值 中位数 均值 标准差 95% CI 首次接触项目年龄(训练启蒙)/岁 男 P < 0.05 3.25 15.34 6.92 8.07 3.44 7.16~8.97 女 3.00 15.42 10.25 9.77 2.96 9.12~10.42 首次奥运夺冠年龄/岁 男 无差异 17.10 32.61 22.81 23.20 3.25 22.34~24.05 女 15.42 31.44 22.40 21.94 3.55 21.94~23.50 启动年限(启动期)/a 男 P < 0.05 0.66 14.00 6.73 6.36 2.97 5.58~7.14 女 0.47 11.00 4.75 5.16 2.67 4.58~5.75 成长期/a 男 无差异 0 13.00 4.00 4.19 2.76 3.46~4.91 女 0 16.00 3.00 3.70 3.19 3.00~4.40 夺冠期/a 男 无差异 0 11.61 4.64 4.60 2.61 3.91~5.28 女 0 15.44 3.60 4.15 3.34 3.42~4.89 成长年限/a 男 P < 0.05 3.50 17.42 10.88 10.54 3.57 9.60~11.48 女 2.24 16.82 8.91 8.85 3.22 8.14~9.56 夺冠年限/a 男 P < 0.05 5.26 24.27 14.36 15.13 4.41 13.97~16.29 女 5.26 21.02 12.97 12.95 3.40 12.20~13.69
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表 4 不同项群成才阶段的性别差异显著性
Table 4 Significance of differences between men and women at the success stage in different groups
项群分类 训练启蒙年龄 启动年限 成长期 夺冠期 成长年限 夺冠年限 “首冠”年龄 技能难美 - - * * * ** ** 技能准确 - 格斗对抗 - 隔网对抗个人 * - - - ** * - 隔网对抗团体 - 快速力量 ** - - - - - - 体能速度 - 体能耐力 - 注：t检验(数据符合正态分布)和Mann-Whitney U检验(数据不符合正态分布)的P值(*表示P < 0.05, **表示P < 0.01)。
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表 5 不同项群训练启蒙年龄、首夺奥运冠军年龄的特点
Table 5 Statistics on the characteristics of the age of start training and first Olympic champion in different event groups
岁 项群 训练启蒙年龄 首夺奥运冠军年龄 中位数 均值 标准差 95% CI 中位数 均值 标准差 95% CI 技能难美 全 5.97 6.26 2.08 5.52~7.00 20.27 20.53 3.53 19.28~20.53 男 5.65 6.37 2.21 5.39~7.35 21.98 22.02 3.11 20.64~23.40 女 6.08 6.05 1.87 4.79~7.30 16.59 17.57 2.23 16.07~19.07 全 13.67 13.82 2.44 12.65~15.00 24.35 25.35 3.70 23.57~27.13 技能准确 男 13.84 14.78 2.69 12.71~16.85 24.18 25.02 4.73 21.38~28.65 女 13.10 12.96 1.93 11.59~14.34 24.94 25.65 2.70 23.72~27.58 格斗对抗 全 13.67 13.31 1.61 12.34~14.29 24.27 24.04 3.28 22.06~26.03 男 14.18 13.54 2.31 10.68~16.40 25.52 24.29 2.70 21.13~27.84 女 13.34 13.17 1.15 12.21~14.14 22.89 23.77 3.75 20.63~26.90 隔网对抗个人 全 6.50 6.70 1.84 6.09~7.31 23.85 24.01 2.56 23.16~24.86 男 5.75 6.11 1.49 5.40~6.83 24.52 24.45 2.69 23.15~25.75 女 7.09 7.32 2.00 6.33~8.32 23.68 23.54 2.39 22.35~23.54 隔网对抗团体 女 12 11.92 2.67 10.86~12.97 22.85 23.53 3.07 22.31~24.74 快速力量 全 11.09 11.28 1.63 10.53~12.02 23.51 23.68 2.88 22.37~24.99 男 10.30 11.26 2.19 9.70~12.83 23.69 24.01 3.58 21.45~26.57 女 11.17 11.29 1.01 10.61~11.97 23.51 23.38 2.21 21.89~24.86 体能速度 全 10.92 10.76 3.37 8.82~12.71 22.19 23.72 4.11 21.35~26.10 男 15.84 12.81 5.39 样本太少 26.1 25.51 4.57 样本太少 女 10.59 10.20 2.71 8.38~12.02 21.94 23.24 4.08 20.50~25.98 体能耐力 全 13.51 13.29 2.35 11.71~14.86 22.35 23.30 3.57 20.90~25.70 男 13.51 12.87 2.85 样本太少 20.68 22.76 4.20 样本太少 女 13.55 13.44 2.34 11.49~15.40 22.60 23.50 3.60 20.49~26.52 注：格斗对抗项群男女运动员、体能速度耐力男运动员、体能耐力男运动员选用中位数计量。
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