Trends of Physical Activities for Children and Adolescents in ChinaPrediction Based on the 14th Five-Year Plan and Medium and Long Term Development
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摘要:
基于2019年全国人口变动情况抽样调查数据和2016年儿童青少年体育健身活动状况调查数据，通过人口预测方法对中国儿童青少年经常参加体育锻炼群体的规模、结构及发展趋势进行预测。发现：2020—2050年经常参加体育锻炼的儿童青少年在规模上整体呈现先升后降并逐渐趋于稳定的趋势。按照总和生育率设定高、中、低3个人口预测方案，预计到2050年经常参加体育锻炼的儿童青少年人口数量分别约为1.68亿、1.39亿和1.21亿。青少年体育赛事、体育组织、参与项目、活动场所以及健身指导的需求也随着规模变动而发生改变，总体呈现短期内小幅度增长、中长期内持续缩减的发展趋势。提出：深化落实体教融合政策，应在制定我国青少年体育“十四五”发展规划及2035年远景目标时，着重考察儿童青少年人口变动趋势，并及时把握新形势下儿童青少年体育活动变化的新趋势、新需求和新问题。
Abstract:Based on the data of the 2019 population sample survey and the 2016 survey of children and adolescents' physical activities, the population prediction method is used to predict the scale, structure and development trend of Chinese children and adolescents who regularly participated in physical exercises. The results show that from 2020 to 2050, the population size of children and adolescents regularly for physical exercises will increase first and then decrease and finally gradually stabilize. It is estimated that by 2050, the number of children and adolescents who regularly take part in physical exercise will be about 168 million, 139 million and 121 million according to the three population prediction schemes of high, medium and low total fertility rates. The demands for junior sports events, activity organization, participation events, sport venues and fitness guidance will also change with the change of scale, showing a general trend of small increase in the short term and continuous decrease in the medium and long term. To deepen the implementation of the integration of sport and education, more attention should be paid to the changing trend of the population of children and adolescents in China and the new trends, needs and problems of the change in children and adolescents' physical activities under the new situation should be grasped when formulating the 14th Five-Year Development Plan of China's youth sports and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.
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图 2 2020—2050年我国6～19岁儿童青少年经常参加体育锻炼的人数比例
Figure 2. The proportion of children aged 6 to 19 who regularly take part in physical exercise in China from 2020 to 2050
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图 3 2020—2050年我国儿童青少年经常参加体育锻炼的规模变动趋势
Figure 3. Trends of the scale of children and adolescents who regularly participate in physical exercise in China from 2020 to 2050
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图 4 2020—2050年我国儿童青少年经常参加体育锻炼的结构变动趋势
Figure 4. Trends of the structure of children and adolescents who regularly participate in physical exercise in China from 2020 to 2050
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图 5 儿童青少年课内外体育活动状况
Figure 5. Sports activities of children and adolescents in and out of class
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图 6 2020—2050年我国儿童青少年参加各级体育比赛的人口变动趋势
Figure 6. Trends of the number of children and adolescents participating in sports competitions at all levels in China from 2020 to 2050
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图 7 2020—2050年我国儿童青少年参加体育社团、课外体育俱乐部的人口变动趋势
Figure 7. Trends of the number of children and adolescents participating in sports associations and extracurricular sports clubs in China from 2020 to 2050
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图 8 2020—2050年田径类、球类、游戏类项目的参与变动趋势
Figure 8. Trends of the number of children and adolescents participating in athletics, ball games and games from 2020 to 2050
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图 9 2020—2050年校外体育项目的参与变动趋势
Figure 9. Trends of the number of children and adolescents participating in off-campus sports activities from 2020 to 2050
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图 10 2020—2050年校外体育场地需承载的人口规模变动趋势
Figure 10. Trends of the population accommodated by off-campus sports venues from 2020 to 2050
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图 11 2020—2050年校外体育活动指导人员需求变动趋势
Figure 11. Trends of the number of children and adolescents who need off-campus physical activity instructors from 2020 to 2050
表 1 2016年我国儿童青少年分年龄、性别经常参加体育锻炼的比例
Table 1 Percentage of children and adolescents regularly participating in physical exercise by age and gender in China in 2016
% 年龄组 男 女 6～10岁 64.15 63.01 11～15岁 71.35 67.91 16～19岁 64.21 54.60 
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表 2 2016年我国儿童青少年分年龄、性别经常参加体育锻炼比例的关系
Table 2 The relationship of the percentage of children in different age and gender groups regularly participating in physical exercise in China in 2016
年龄组 固定比值 固定差值 男 女 男 女 6～10岁 1.00 0.98 0.00 −0.01 11～15岁 1.11 1.06 0.07 0.04 16～19岁 1.00 0.85 0.00 −0.10
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表 3 2020—2050年我国儿童青少年经常参加体育锻炼的规模预测
Table 3 Forecast of the scale of children and adolescents who regulately participate in physical exercise in China from 2020 to 2050
万人 预测方案 年份 6～10岁 11～15岁 16～19岁 男 女 男 女 男 女 固定比值法 低方案 2020 2963.07 2491.10 3277.66 2619.67 2181.59 1565.89 2035 2224.62 2032.00 2925.04 2531.80 2972.49 2232.59 2050 2131.34 1997.79 2466.88 2241.65 1779.64 1441.91 中方案 2020 2963.07 2491.10 3277.66 2619.67 2181.59 1565.89 2035 2487.52 2272.24 3032.86 2625.51 2970.30 2230.94 2050 2476.30 2321.13 2864.19 2602.69 2031.24 1645.79 高方案 2020 2963.07 2491.10 3277.66 2619.67 2181.59 1565.89 2035 2844.18 2598.42 3160.03 2736.06 2968.14 2229.32 2050 3030.66 2840.75 3392.63 3082.88 2467.26 1998.96 固定差值法 低方案 2020 2965.78 2497.28 3251.99 2609.49 2183.40 1591.05 2035 2225.04 2041.91 2849.10 2495.96 2972.33 2334.20 2050 2136.20 2013.87 2393.19 2207.22 1783.17 1525.56 中方案 2020 2965.78 2497.28 3251.99 2609.49 2183.40 1591.05 2035 2488.46 2283.74 2954.81 2588.88 2970.71 2332.77 2050 2482.25 2340.08 2779.02 2563.04 2035.51 1741.43 高方案 2020 2965.78 2497.28 3251.99 2609.49 2183.40 1591.05 2035 2845.79 2612.04 3079.40 2698.46 2969.11 2331.35 2050 3037.22 2863.29 3290.86 3035.15 2471.87 2114.75
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